Sen.-elect Troy Jackson, D-Maine. Photo (cc) 2023 by ArenLeBrun.
Democrats have nailed down 54 seats in the Senate, and that number could climb to 55 or 56 depending on how the counting progresses in Alaska and (gasp!) Mississippi.
But even if Republicans hold on to both, Democrats have achieved something of great importance: They’ve made the Senate Fetterman-proof. That is, their majority is large enough that the Trump-curious Pennsylvania Democrat will be unable to demand concessions in return for his support, as Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema did during Joe Biden’s first two years as president.
There are many, many observations to be made about the gigantic blue wave that came crashing over the Republican Party’s heads Tuesday night and this morning. One that I want to make involves the extraordinary good fortune the Democrats enjoyed in a number of races that they may not have otherwise won even with a deeply unpopular president looming over the election. Here are three:
Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan with Sen. Lisa Murkowski. 2017 photo in the public domain.
I wasn’t planning to write yet another post about The New York Times’ coverage of Mary Peltola and the two Dan Sullivans. But the Times keeps running follow-ups, so here I am.
On Sunday, the paper published a remarkably calm page-one story headlined “Will Spoilers Actually Matter in Midterms?” The digital headline: “Third-Party Spoilers, Long Fueled by Both Parties, Could Matter This Year.” Here’s how it opens:
Sly maneuvering around third-party candidates is a time-honored, bipartisan tradition in politics.
Democrats and Republicans alike have long stealthily tried to help little-known names on the ballot who might siphon votes away from the opposing party’s nominees.
My first thought was that this would have made a good lead for last Wednesday’s story, by Kellen Browning, on how the Peltola campaign recruited a ringer in an attempt to siphon votes away from incumbent Republican senator Dan Sullivan. Instead, the Times went DEFCON 1, portraying the story as a significant scandal and burying the context. You have to read more than 30 paragarphs before you come to this:
Republicans have also taken advantage of this system. When Ms. Peltola ran for re-election to the House two years ago, the state Republican Party backed an effort to help a Democrat — an inmate who ran his campaign from a New York prison — stay on the ballot.
Peltola, a Democrat, has denied having anything to do with recruiting the other Dan Sullivan. Whether that’s true or not, the Times’ reporting shows convincingly that her campaign did. It’s kind of slimy, but it’s hardly unusual. It’s also not a crime unless money changed hands, something that absolutely no one has alleged.
In a summary of “The Elements of Journalism,” a classic work on ethics by Bill Kovach and Tom Rosenstiel, we encounter this:
[Journalism] must keep the news comprehensive and proportional…. Keeping news in proportion is a cornerstone of truthfulness. Inflating events for sensation, neglecting others, stereotyping, or being disproportionately negative all make a less reliable map.
The Times failed to do that with the initial report by Browning, and it’s been softening its tone in several follow-ups since then, culminating with Epstein’s eminently rational take on the entire affair. You might surmise that the paper’s editors have been having second thoughts about how the story was played. But the damage had already been done.
The polls this morning show Peltola clinging to a narrow lead, with both her and Sullivan (that is, the Republican incumbent, not the ringer) ticking down in the last couple of days. If she loses, it might well be because of the Times.
It’s not journalism’s role to cover up for a candidate just because we’re in the final days of a campaign. But neither is it to take a routine instance of political gamesmanship and play it up like a major scandal, either.
Anchorage, Alaska. Photo (cc) 2026 by Quintin Soloviev
Josh Marshall has weighed in with some smart commentary on Mary Peltola and the Dan Sullivans. You should read the whole thing, but here’s the heart of it:
I’ve heard a number of people say they’re “troubled” or “disturbed” or unhappy that this happened. All I can say is that I would really recommend that you toughen up because you simply won’t make it through the next few years, even under the best circumstances. There is no crime here and no possibility of a crime here. This is trolling….
Republicans have pulled this same name stunt countless times. No one has ever claimed that it’s a crime because it’s not.
I want to make three points about The New York Times’ report that the campaign of Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola recruited a ringer named Dan Sullivan to take votes away from her rival, the incumbent Republican, who is also named Dan Sullivan.
First, why did Elisa Rios, the Times’ main source, retract what she told them? “As discussed on our call earlier today, I am confirming that I have retracted all statements made regarding the 2026 Alaska Senate Race in connection with any article you may or may not be writing,” Rios wrote. “I am not willing to be a source for any story in any capacity.” I know the Times says they verified the story independently, but what was that all about?
From E. Benjamin Andrews’ “History of the United States” (1912), via Wikimedia Commons.
Tanner Stening of Northeastern Global News asked me Friday whether we could still trust the polls. I talked instead about why the media should move on from its obsession with polling and horse-race coverage. As Jay Rosen says, “Not the odds, but the stakes.”
Northeastern journalism professor Dan Kennedy said the media has become too attached to polling and the political “horse race” it attempts to forecast — often at the expense of reporting on the issues and the candidates themselves….
“We should be reporting on the genuine desires of the public and which candidate is speaking best to those desires — or, rather than making that value judgment, how candidates are responding to those desires,” Kennedy said.
The digital version was posted Tuesday by CommonWealth, but there’s more to come, including a print version and explainer videos on social. (Note: I’m a member of CommonWealth’s editorial advisory board.)
Voters could find the ballot especially confusing this year because there are nine questions they will be asked to sift through, including public records reform, a switch to all-party primaries and the repeal of marijuana legalization. The project comprises an overview, explainers, data visualizations, pro and con mini-essays and links to past coverage.
Like all of CommonWealth’s journalism, the ballot-questions project is freely available for republication either in print or online. Or local news outlets could just link to it in a prominent place on their homepages.
Government by ballot question isn’t ideal, but legislative inaction has made it an increasingly important outlet for voter frustration. Don’t go into the ballot booth without knowing what you’re voting for.
Sen. Ed Markey takes in a Worcester Red Sox game on Aug. 13. Photo (cc) 2026 by Dan Kennedy.
Even though the polls showed U.S. Sen. Ed Markey beating his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, by 30 points or more, I figured the final tally would be closer — like maybe on the order of 18 points. That in itself would have been a drubbing, and given that Moulton is a standard-issue moderate liberal, I thought it unlikely that he’d fall any lower.
As it turned out, the polls were right. Markey won by just a shade under 30 points (64.9% to 35.1%), which suggests that Moulton had alienated a large proportion of the Democratic base.
Moulton ran a terrible campaign, but if I had to point to one factor that stood out, it was his false, sleazy accusation that Markey had some sort of tie to Jeffrey Epstein. In a low-turnout primary dominated by highly motivated, well-informed voters, that destroyed any chance Moulton might have had of a late comeback.
I’d be curious to know the thought process that led Moulton to go scorched-earth in a campaign in which he was always the longest of longshots. I suspect he’s done enormous damage to his future prospects for electoral office, although I suppose he could always run for president again.
Seth Moulton, left, and Ed Markey at Thursday’s Senate debate, sponsored by WCVB-TV, The Boston Globe and WBUR. Photo via YouTube.
As I wrote on Wednesday, The Boston Globe’s endorsement of U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton over incumbent Ed Markey in the Democratic Senate primary was a bit of a surprise, although it fits within a tradition of counterintuitive endorsements dating back through several different ownership groups.
Now, though, longtime Democratic political figure George Bachrach is claiming that Globe owners John and Linda Henry may have been motivated by an undisclosed conflict of interest: Since September 2023, Seth Moulton’s wife, Elizabeth Moulton, has been the chief talent and people officer at Elevate, a sports and entertainment consulting firm. In April 2024, Elevate acquired Fenway Sports Management’s Consulting Group. John Henry is the principal owner of FSM as well as the Boston Red Sox.
U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton. Photo (cc) 2019 by Marc Nozell.
Endorsements matter in lower-profile races because voters might genuinely be looking for guidance.
Follow-up: A longtime politico alleges the Globe had a conflict in its Seth Moulton endorsement.
For instance, The Boston Globe’s endorsement of Lori Trahan and Jake Auchincloss might have been key factors in their first congressional victories, given that there was no incumbent and there were multiple candidates running. On the other hand, The New York Times’ double endorsement of Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries stands out as an exercise in futility.
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In two weeks we’ll know which category the Globe’s endorsement of U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (sub. req., but this is free) in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate fits into. The incumbent, Ed Markey, remains popular despite his advanced age: he leads Moulton by a 28-point margin, according to the latest WCVB-TV/UMass Amherst poll, and the Globe/Suffolk University poll (sub. req.) has Markey up by 14. Moreover, endorsements matter less in high-profile contests — president, governor, senator — than they do when voters are less familiar with the candidates.
At the Obama Presidential Center there are several small dioramas marking events from Barack Obama’s presidency. One is of a Girl Scout campout that Michelle Obama hosted on the South Lawn in 2015. We see white tents, neatly arrayed, with the girls in a circle around a tiny campfire. It’s heartbreaking. How can we look at such a scene and not think about how Donald Trump has trashed the White House, and the presidency? It’s impossible to think about it without getting choked up — which is how we spent most of our visit to the Obama Center during our trip to Chicago last week.
