Category: Uncategorized

Not a great night for McCain

I wasn’t going to post during the debate. But I dozed off, and woke up to watch McCain and Romney going at it on the timetables McCain says Romney advocated to withdraw from the war in Iraq. McCain seems petulant and petty tonight, his contempt for Romney barely disguised. McCain’s not telling the truth about Romney, and he all but admitted it, justifying it by pointing to the millions of dollars Romney spent on negative ads aimed at McCain and Huckabee.

Responding to a question about whether Romney was qualified to be commander-in-chief, McCain made a crack about Romney’s experience selling and buying companies and eliminating people’s jobs.

Huckabee’s whining incessantly about not getting equal time. He’s lucky he’s up there. It’s not as if anyone has voted for him lately. And Ron Paul is even luckier.

The governor’s loaded dice

I like to stay away from debates over what kinds of benefits may or may not flow from Gov. Deval Patrick’s three-casino proposal. My reasoning is simple: casinos are bad news for a whole host of reasons, including traffic, crime and predicted increases in the divorce and suicide rates. If it turns out that Patrick’s rosy promises of tax revenues and jobs turn out to be true, well, I’m still against it.

Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that there’s considerable evidence that the numbers really don’t add up. The latest example is Steve Bailey’s column in today’s Globe, in which Bailey notes that the governor has promised four or times as many construction jobs as were created by the Big Dig, which was only the largest public-works project in the history of the known universe.

A more in-depth analysis of the numbers is provided in CommonWealth Magazine by Phil Primack. His story is proof, really, that there are no good numbers — and that as others, most prominently the Weekly Dig, have reported, Patrick has mainly adopted the assumptions of Clyde Barrow, a UMass Dartmouth researcher who is staunchly pro-casino. Primack’s story is must reading for anyone looking for a comprehensive overview of the numbers.

If the Legislature is unwilling to kill Patrick’s proposal outright, then at the very least it ought to commission an independent study. Legislators in the middle might be surprised at how little we’re going to get out of this, especially compared with how much we’re going to be hurt.

Of pitchers and Patriots

This Sunday we can finally get that Super Bowl thing over with and start talking about baseball. Spring training’s just a few weeks away. Two quick hits this morning:

  • I’m actually glad that Johan Santana has gone to the Mets, preferring to watch the Red Sox win (or lose) with the kids. As Tom Werner says, at least he’s not going to the Yankees. And I know Pedro’s near the end of his career, but can he handle not being the Man?
  • Roger Clemens’ protestations of innocence don’t add up, but he’s made them so vehemently that I had decided to suspend judgment. But if Andy Pettitte is ready to say Clemens used steroids and human growth hormone, it’s lights out.

Oh, one other thing. Go Pats.

A huge step forward for McCain

Democratic leaders must be unhappy tonight. By designating John McCain, finally, as the frontrunner, Florida Republicans have given a huge boost to the strongest candidate who could be nominated in terms of appealing to independents and conservative Democrats. McCain’s hardcore support for the war in Iraq may be poison in November. But he’s far more likely to expand his vote beyond the Republican base than Mitt Romney.

At 71, McCain is an old-fashioned guy. He’s wearing a hideous tie (no, not the one in the photo), and he began his speech by talking to the folks in the room, not the television cameras — reminiscing about his naval training in Pensacola, introducing Gov. Charlie Crist, Sen. Mel Martinez and several members of Congress. He also hailed Rudy Giuliani, who’s likely to endorse him this week. That will be huge, as it will unite moderate Republicans around one candidate.

Now he’s giving his stump speech, aimed at solidifying his shaky support among conservatives. “I am as proud today to be a Republican conservative as I was then,” he said, repeating his frequent line of being a “foot soldier in the Reagan revolution.” Essentially it’s a list of conservative nostrums aimed at trying to unite his party, complete with a whack at judges, always popular with the red-meat crowd.

“We have a ways to go, but we’re getting close,” he said in closing. “And for that you have my profound thanks.”

Live-blogging note: When I don’t edit myself, I tend to write “huge” a lot, don’t I?

Photo (cc) by marcn. Some rights reserved.

Romney speaks

Romney’s speaking now. By all rights, he should be just about out of it now. But it’s a strange year, so who knows? He seems nervous and upset, but that doesn’t necessary presage a pullout.

One of the more unusual findings I saw on CNN tonight was that McCain beat Romney solidly among voters for whom the economy is their most important concern. The economy has been Romney’s mantra since Michigan, but it didn’t work in Florida.

Romney: “I think it’s time for the politicians to leave Washington and the citizens to take over.” He’s running through his usual talking points, bashing “Hillarycare” and teachers unions. He’s for families and the military. And George W. Bush. But he really sounds like he’s straining — very different from Giuliani a few moments ago. Then, Giuliani had known for weeks that he was going to lose.

I can’t imagine he’s going to quit quite yet. He’s got money, and, as Huckabee continues to fade, he might pick up the evangelicals.

But it looks like the Republicans finally have a frontrunner, and it’s not Mitt Romney.

Closer than it looks

It’s now McCain, 35 percent, and Romney, 31 percent, but they still won’t call it. What’s going on? Take a look at this map from WashingtonPost.com. Most All (that’s a lake!) of the untallied counties are from the Panhandle. This is going to get tighter.

Oh, and now the word is that Giuliani is going to pull out and endorse McCain. And here we go — the AP and Fox just called it for McCain.

Does Florida look like America?

This is pretty amazing. Forty percent of Democrats who voted in the Florida primary were 60 and older. Among Republicans: 44 percent. Only 9 percent of Democrats are under 30, and only 7 percent of Republicans. Not sure how that plays out in the Republican primary, but it certainly hurts Obama, who got pasted tonight in the no-delegate beauty contest.