Month: October 2008

Double digits

Everyone being polled could be lying. John McCain could pull Osama bin Laden’s head out of a bag and hold it up before the TV cameras the weekend before the election. Sarah Palin could be replaced on the Republican ticket by Warren Buffet, who — along with Colin Powell — will renounce his previous endorsement of Barack Obama. So no predictions from me.

But good Lord. John Zogby, whose methodology may understate support for Barack Obama, now has him leading McCain by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent. And Pew has Obama up by 14 points among both registered voters (52 percent to 38 percent) and likely voters (53 percent to 39 percent).

Posts on polls are kind of useless, and I apologize. But the campaign has taken over most of my brain cells. I thought it was interesting that what seemed like a slight shift toward McCain a few days ago appears to have been stopped and is now being reversed.

I still think it’s going to be close.

Dial “Z” for poll numbers

I’m allergic to math, but even I can understand why Barack Obama’s eight-point lead in the Zogby tracking poll is bigger than it looks.

Zogby has consistently had John McCain doing better than in many other polls. As Nate Silver explains, it’s because Zogby weights party affiliation based on exit polls from the previous election.

So if the electorate is more Democratic today than it was in 2004 — and it is, by quite a bit — then Obama’s lead is actually understated by Zogby. That is, if the tracking poll is accurate in the first place, which is always a question worth asking.

Slime in historical context

Josh Marshall writes: “I don’t think there’s any question that McCain’s is the dirtiest and most dishonest campaign, certainly in the last 35 years and possibly going much further back into the early 20th century.”

By invoking the 35-year rule, Marshall is leaving open the possibility that Richard Nixon’s re-election effort in 1972 was worse. I’d agree with that. Worse than anything since? Yes, I think so. The worst I can remember George W. Bush doing against Al Gore was taking credit for a children’s health measure in Texas that had passed over his veto. George H.W. Bush ran some notably dirty campaigns in 1988 and ’92, but I think McCain has set a new standard.

Last night Mrs. Media Nation and Media Nation Jr. came back from a trip to the in-laws and reported that several members of the family had asserted that Barack Obama is “a terrorist.” Not even that he “pals around with terrorists.”

You can argue all day that neither John McCain nor Sarah Palin has said anything quite that breathtakingly brash. But they set it in motion, and let pre-existings fears about a black man with a Muslim-sounding name do the rest.

An improbably good post-season

Congratulations to the Red Sox, whose incredible comeback in Game 5 capped an improbable post-season. Somehow they glided into the playoffs without ever really getting hot. Then they knocked off the Angels, and nearly knocked off the Rays, despite injuries and glaring weaknesses.

Not that the Rays haven’t had injuries. But they are a young and resilient bunch, aren’t they?

The Sox have a lot of holes right now — holes that weren’t at all apparent when the season began. Of course, the biggest hole is the loss of Manny Ramírez’s bat. Jason Bay was a great pickup given the impossible situation Ramírez put the Sox in. But he’s no Manny.

Will Lowell ever be the same player? No. Ortiz? He’ll be better than he was this year, but he’s not going to hit 50 homers again. Probably not 40, either. Will Drew ever play a full season? No. How’d you like to play with a herniated disc? Is Youkilis now the third baseman? I hope not. He plays with such maniacal intensity that I’d rather seem him stay at first, where he’s less likely to burn himself out. Will Lowrie and Ellsbury hit consistently enough to stay in the line-up? Who knows?

Two things I’d like to see next year: (1) Beckett’s showing up in shape. This year he hurt his back, and then it was one thing after another for the rest of the season. (2) Schilling’s rejoining the team after the All-Star break. He might just be better than he was in late 2007. And he was pretty good then.

Go Rays!

Photo of Fenway Park copyright © 2008 by Michaela Stanelun. All rights reserved.

Remembering David Nyhan

My brief mention of the late Boston Globe columnist David Nyhan prompts this wonderful reminiscence by Elliot Luber, who writes to Media Nation about watching Nyhan in action while he was a Northeastern co-op student.

The occasion was the 1978 night that Ed King stunned the political world by defeating incumbent Michael Dukakis in the Democratic primary for governor.

Meeting Nyhan was probably the highlight of my co-op experience — not that I didn’t learn more from Paul Hirschorn, John Burke and Andy Gully (back at the Lawrence Eagle-Tribune), but Nyhan was the ultimate role model.

He was the tall young handsome journalist married to a model, and he called things as he saw them with not the slightest fear of how it might wrinkle [Globe editor Tom] Winship. I remember the night of Ed King’s victory over Dukakis — how it caught them so far by surpirse that they couldn’t make heads or tails of the numbers.

Winship had all the top editors huddled around an Atex where they were trying to figure out their lead story, and no one could, so Winship called for Nyhan to “get over here.” Nyhan, of course, was already out the door on the top floor of the parking lot, where they had quarantined the alcohol until after deadline.

He came sauntering across the city room with the loud false floor above the Atex wiring booming, then sat down in front of the terminal, and put his beer down beside it. I remember telling Bart Ziegler: “He’s so damned cool! Here it is, the shit’s hitting the fan, and he’s so calm about it that he’s drinking in front of Winship.”

When I read in his obituary that he had won the Harvard-Yale game for Harvard by recovering a fumble in the end zone I was amused, but not surprised. I’d seen him do that for Winship.

Luber now lives in New York, where he works for IBM.

Powell endorses Obama

Anticipated for weeks, if not months, former secretary of state Colin Powell has finally endorsed Barack Obama. Is this as big as everyone thinks it is? My suspicion is that it will prove to be the single most important endorsement of the campaign, yet still fall short of being a transcendent moment.

Powell is a flawed figure tied to the past, and there are those who will discount this on the grounds that both Powell and Obama are African-American. On the other hand, Powell crystallizes principled conservative discomfort with the McCain-Palin ticket.

But it’s certainly bigger than any newspaper endorsement.

Man bites dog

The Phoenix’s David Bernstein salutes Mike Barnicle for writing a tough Huffington Post piece on John McCain, whom he had praised fulsomely for many years.

I’ll go halfway there. Barnicle is mighty critical of McCain, and it’s wondrous to see. But he can’t quite seem to get it through his head that it was McCain himself who hired the advisers “who took his honor and reputation and tossed it out like so many discarded items for a yard sale.” As I said the other day, there is no such thing as candidates who are better than their campaigns.

Here’s what I’d really like to know. What would David Nyhan think? I can’t recall a liberal pundit more enamored of McCain than Nyhan was. Unfortunately, he’s not here to tell us.