By Dan Kennedy • The press, politics, technology, culture and other passions
When John McCain complained that a Mitt Romney advertisement had characterized McCain’s program for dealing with illegal immigrants as “amnesty,” Romney denied it. “I don’t call it amnesty,” said Romney. McCain, though, was telling the truth. Romney, well, wasn’t.
Now Romney has a new Internet-only ad out comparing McCain to Hillary Clinton. And guess what? The ad criticizes McCain for supporting “amnesty.” Somehow I don’t think Romney will deny it this time.
Wow. Check out this editorial about Mitt Romney on the Wall Street Journal’s ultraconservative editorial page, which is no fan of John McCain. Here’s just a tiny taste:
Plenty of politicians attune their positions to new constituencies. The larger danger is that Mr. Romney’s conversions are not motivated by expediency or mere pandering but may represent his real governing philosophy….
John McCain’s difficulties in selling himself to GOP voters reflect his many liberal lurches over the years — from taxes to free speech, prescription drugs and global warming cap and trade. Republicans have a pretty good sense of where he might betray them. Yet few doubt that on other issues — national security, spending — Mr. McCain will stick to his principles no matter the opinion polls. If Mr. Romney loses to Senator McCain, the cause will be his failure to persuade voters that he has any convictions at all.
Very tough stuff. (Via Blue Mass Group.)
I wasn’t going to post during the debate. But I dozed off, and woke up to watch McCain and Romney going at it on the timetables McCain says Romney advocated to withdraw from the war in Iraq. McCain seems petulant and petty tonight, his contempt for Romney barely disguised. McCain’s not telling the truth about Romney, and he all but admitted it, justifying it by pointing to the millions of dollars Romney spent on negative ads aimed at McCain and Huckabee.
Responding to a question about whether Romney was qualified to be commander-in-chief, McCain made a crack about Romney’s experience selling and buying companies and eliminating people’s jobs.
Huckabee’s whining incessantly about not getting equal time. He’s lucky he’s up there. It’s not as if anyone has voted for him lately. And Ron Paul is even luckier.
Democratic leaders must be unhappy tonight. By designating John McCain, finally, as the frontrunner, Florida Republicans have given a huge boost to the strongest candidate who could be nominated in terms of appealing to independents and conservative Democrats. McCain’s hardcore support for the war in Iraq may be poison in November. But he’s far more likely to expand his vote beyond the Republican base than Mitt Romney.
At 71, McCain is an old-fashioned guy. He’s wearing a hideous tie (no, not the one in the photo), and he began his speech by talking to the folks in the room, not the television cameras — reminiscing about his naval training in Pensacola, introducing Gov. Charlie Crist, Sen. Mel Martinez and several members of Congress. He also hailed Rudy Giuliani, who’s likely to endorse him this week. That will be huge, as it will unite moderate Republicans around one candidate.
Now he’s giving his stump speech, aimed at solidifying his shaky support among conservatives. “I am as proud today to be a Republican conservative as I was then,” he said, repeating his frequent line of being a “foot soldier in the Reagan revolution.” Essentially it’s a list of conservative nostrums aimed at trying to unite his party, complete with a whack at judges, always popular with the red-meat crowd.
“We have a ways to go, but we’re getting close,” he said in closing. “And for that you have my profound thanks.”
Live-blogging note: When I don’t edit myself, I tend to write “huge” a lot, don’t I?
Photo (cc) by marcn. Some rights reserved.
Romney’s speaking now. By all rights, he should be just about out of it now. But it’s a strange year, so who knows? He seems nervous and upset, but that doesn’t necessary presage a pullout.
One of the more unusual findings I saw on CNN tonight was that McCain beat Romney solidly among voters for whom the economy is their most important concern. The economy has been Romney’s mantra since Michigan, but it didn’t work in Florida.
Romney: “I think it’s time for the politicians to leave Washington and the citizens to take over.” He’s running through his usual talking points, bashing “Hillarycare” and teachers unions. He’s for families and the military. And George W. Bush. But he really sounds like he’s straining — very different from Giuliani a few moments ago. Then, Giuliani had known for weeks that he was going to lose.
I can’t imagine he’s going to quit quite yet. He’s got money, and, as Huckabee continues to fade, he might pick up the evangelicals.
But it looks like the Republicans finally have a frontrunner, and it’s not Mitt Romney.
It’s now McCain, 35 percent, and Romney, 31 percent, but they still won’t call it. What’s going on? Take a look at this map from WashingtonPost.com. Most All (that’s a lake!) of the untallied counties are from the Panhandle. This is going to get tighter.
Oh, and now the word is that Giuliani is going to pull out and endorse McCain. And here we go — the AP and Fox just called it for McCain.
But no indication of where the votes are coming from. Presumably, Romney’s going to do better in the conservative Florida Panhandle, where the polls closed an hour later. So, uh, maybe I’ll just watch for a while.
John McCain, already sucking wind in Florida, may have hurt himself in the area that’s his greatest strength — his reputation for “straight talk.” Check out the headline on this AP story: “Romney didn’t say what McCain says he said on withdrawing from Iraq.” By mischaracterizing Romney’s position, he’s succeeded in taking the spotlight off Romney’s own tenuous relationship with the truth.
It is with some amazement that I find myself thinking of Mitt Romney as one of the last two Republicans standing — and as the person who might at this point be the favorite to win the nomination. Yes, just last night I said that John McCain probably had a clearer path than anyone else. But I’ve been rethinking that.
First, let me deal with the also-rans, all of whom are pretty much done at this point.
So we’ve basically got a two-man race between McCain and Romney, which was pretty hard to imagine after Romney lost New Hampshire. I didn’t hear any squawking last October when Ryan Lizza wrote in the New Yorker that Romney’s only chance was to win Iowa and New Hampshire, then hope for momentum. He lost both, of course, and has won only one competitive state — Michigan. Yet he’s very much alive.
Consider that McCain has won two hard-fought primaries, New Hampshire and South Carolina, but has yet to win a plurality of Republicans anywhere. As Adam Nagourney observes in the New York Times today, many of the upcoming primaries are for Republicans only.
Consider, too, that conservatives have been split among Romney, Huckabee and Thompson. Not anymore.
Add to this Romney’s personal fortune and his willingness to say absolutely anything to get elected, and he may very well have the edge.
Finally, check out Jeff Jacoby’s column in today’s Globe. Jacoby, a conservative who’s been mocking Romney since 1994, is appalled at Romney’s attempt to don the cloak of Ronald Reagan.
Photo (cc) by Joe Crimmings. Some rights reserved.
John McCain certainly looks like one tonight. His speech was much more passionate and direct than the one he gave in New Hampshire, and, for Republicans, there is no more important a prize than South Carolina.
Anything could happen, but right now the least surprising outcome would be McCain’s winning Florida and then wrapping up the nomination on Super Tuesday or shortly thereafter. Certainly Mitt Romney seems to be the only obstacle still standing in his way.
I know, I know. Pretty obvious stuff, eh? Well, at least I’m only giving you 15 seconds of it. The cable nets have been at it all night.