Tracking polls are notoriously unreliable, but the Gallup trend is clear:
- Aug. 23-25: McCain, 46 percent; Obama, 44 percent. Gallup’s take: “It’s official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.”
- Aug. 24-26: Obama, 45 percent; McCain, 44 percent. Gallup’s take: “No major change in structure of race, though Obama is doing slightly better.”
- Aug. 25-27: Obama, 48 percent; McCain, 42 percent. Gallup’s take: “Democratic candidate gains in Monday through Wednesday interviewing.”
If these numbers are right, then it shows that all the media’s hyperventilating about the convention’s not being attack-oriented enough and the Clintons’ stealing the spotlight from Obama is bunk.
The latest figures don’t even capture voter reaction to Bill Clinton’s, John Kerry’s, and Joe Biden’s speeches, not to mention Obama’s cameo at the end of the night. And Gallup’s numbers won’t include Obama’s own speech until Saturday.
What does this mean? It looks like Obama is going to receive a normal convention bounce. And unless McCain and the Republicans utterly blow it next week, we’ll be back to a tied race when both conventions are over.
We’d all be better off watching C-SPAN.
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Just because the media has access to a microphone and the public airwaves, doesn’t mean they know any more than the rest of us. They talk a good game, but in the end they’re just guessing.