By Dan Kennedy • The press, politics, technology, culture and other passions

How’s that trade working out? (XIV)

Bronson Arroyo at midseason: 3 wins, 9 losses, 4.84 ERA.

Wily Mo Peña at midseason: .208 batting average, 4 HR, 12 RBI.

It doesn’t matter anymore.

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  1. Suldog

    You’re basically right. However, give Arroyo a team like the Red Sox behind him, rather than the Reds, and his figures would be nearer 6-6 with perhaps a 4.20. Meanwhile, Wily Mo would still be a bum, no matter where he was playing in the majors.

  2. metallicaMobes

    I disagree…Trade Willy Mo and Julio Lugo to Baltimore, and we’ll give you Tejada.Willy Mo, when given full playing time, produces much better. Lugo performs in lower-pressure markets like Baltimore, and Tejada just doesn’t care enough to produce in B’More. Win-win! (but you have to eat his contract)Let’s Go O’s! (9 losing seasons in a row can’t kill this fan’s loyalty!)

  3. Wes

    Agree with suldog… And, we can always use another guitar.

  4. Don (no longer) Fluffy

    It probably never did.

  5. mike_b1

    Arroyo is basically performing where he left off his last season in Boston. He pitched well for a little more than half a season in 2006, a minor feat a few wannabe GMs mistook for emerging talent.It’s a joke to think his ERA would improve by moving out of the hitting-impaired NL. And his guitar playing is as bad as his pitching.WMP, on the other, needs at bats — which he will never get here. He has awesome power, but a long swing, a la Tony Clark, and needs to play everyday in order to keep his timing. He will always strike out a lot, but as Eric Van has shown, strikeouts are meaningless. I’ll take the 45 HRs and .500 slugging anyday.

  6. Suldog

    As soon as everybody understands that you never, EVER, throw Wily Mo a fastball, he will be lucky to bat .200, no matter how much playing time you give him. He can’t hit breaking stuff worth a damn. If he can improve on that, more power to him (no pun intended) but I doubt it will happen.As for Arroyo’s ERA improving with a move from the NL, that’s based on the fielding behind him, not the batters in front of him. The Red Sox are a demonstrably better fielding team than the Reds. I may have given more of a bump than deserved because of that, but I’d say he’d top out at 4.50 or so here.

  7. mike_b1

    Wrong, all wrong!

  8. mike_b1

    Following up on that, I looked up Cincy’s DER (defensive efficiency rating, which is the percentage of balls put into play that the team turns into outs). In 006, it was .691. In 2007, it is .685. In other words, that’s a difference of one less out every 150 batters, or roughly one out every 3.5 games. Given no real year-to-year change in Cincy’s defense, what can be substantiated is that 1) Arroyo’s K rate is the same (6.1 now, 6.2 last year) and his HR/9 rate is down (.72 now, 1.0 last year), which likely offsets a higher walk rate (1 more batter per 9 innings than last year) and 2) he’s regressed to his true level. In short, his streak last year was pure luck. (Which is what I wrote time and again.)

  9. Dan Kennedy

    Mike: No, you didn’t. You said Arroyo sucked last year. (I know, rhymes with “luck.”)

  10. mike_b1

    Dan, I said he sucked in 2005, and that on the basis of that, the Sox were right to dump him.

  11. Bill

    The Hardball Times “Win Shares” (mild variant of Bill James moneyball) scores2005 WS WSABArroyo 12 (+ 6)Pena 8 (+ 2)2006 WS WSABArroyo 21 (+15)Pena 8 (+ 2)2007 (mid)Arroyo 3 (+ 0)Pena 0 (- 3)(WSAB=Win Shares above bench)Looks like Arroyo was better last year than usual, and both are below par this year. If I were a Rotiserie player, I’d have done better with Arroyo for the last 1.5 seasons.How about that trade? — Bill R

  12. mike_b1

    Depends on what your need is, Bill. A 23-year-old who hit 51 HRs and slugged .500 in his first 800 at-bats would seem to me to be way more valuable than a 28-year-old career .500 pitcher whose ERA and K/9 rate were going the wrong direction. The need for a new RF and the abundance of pitching (at the time) would seal it. Hindsight is Dan Shaughnessy.

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