Running the numbers on the trade

I’ve been listening to WEEI Radio (AM 850) on and off for the last hour, and it seems that one early theme has emerged: it was time for Manny Ramírez to go, but the Red Sox gave up too much.

But did they? I don’t think so. Clearly they weren’t going to get equal value, because the whole world knew that the Sox were trying to dump Ramírez. Even so, they did pretty well — financially, too, despite their agreeing to pay Manny’s salary for the rest of the season.

Let’s start with the money. The Dodgers get Ramírez for free for the final two months of the year, as the Red Sox have agreed to pay the $7 million he’s still owed. Jason Bay makes $7.5 million a year [not quite; see update] and the Sox will have to pay him for the rest of the season, or about $2.5 million. So, in essence, they’re paying $9.5 million to have a left fielder for August and September (and, let’s hope, October). That’s a lot of money.

But turn that around. Bay is under contract for next year — again, at $7.5 million. Up until a few weeks ago, it seemed possible that the Sox would pick up Manny’s option for next year, which would have cost $20 million. Manny turns 37 next May. Bay will be 30. Given that differential, there’s a good chance that Bay will put up numbers as good as Ramírez next year, and at one-third the cost. And the Sox may be able to sign Bay to a long-term contract at far less than they would have paid to keep Manny around.

So the Sox will take a hit for two months this year, but will benefit hugely next year and perhaps beyond.

As for the prospects, well, Craig Hansen has been a monumental bust, and that’s putting it mildly. If he’s ever going to succeed, it’s not going to be here. He needs a fresh start somewhere else. Pittsburgh will be a nice, quiet place for him to develop. It’s only a slight exaggeration to say the Sox were lucky to find a way to get rid of him.

Brandon Moss? He turns 25 in September. Bay was the National League’s Rookie of the Year when he was Moss’ age. Moss might turn into a useful player, but he was never going to be more than a fourth outfielder in Boston. To get a player as good as Bay, you’ve got to give up something other than an aging superstar who’ll walk at the end of the season (and who does the Pirates no good anyway) and a pitcher who is, at best, a reclamation project.

You never know how these things will work out. On paper, though, I’d say this is a good deal with the potential to be better than good.

Manny’s gone after all

And a very good trade it is, given that the Red Sox were not in a position to get equal value:

  • Ramírez is out of the AL, so if he leads someone to a pennant, it won’t be to the detriment of the Sox. (Should be something if the Sox meet the Dodgers in the World Series, though.)
  • Jason Bay’s no Manny, but there have been times the last two years when Manny’s been no Manny, either. The big thing is that Ramírez’s bat has been more or less replaced.
  • It’s possible that we’ll regret this some day, but I’ve gotten tired of waiting for Craig Hansen to develop into something other than a complete stiff. Best of luck, Craig.
  • Too bad about Brandon Moss, but he wasn’t going to play here.

The Dodgers get Ramírez for free, which stinks, but it looks like John Henry has decided paying Manny’s salary the rest of the year is a bargain if it gets him out of town.

And, yes, it’s too bad it had to end this way. It seems like it was only a few weeks ago that everyone was raving about the new, outgoing, talkative Ramírez. That all came apart in a hurry, didn’t it?

Is Ramírez staying?

No links — things are changing too quickly. It’s a few minutes after the trading deadline. Unless the Red Sox have something up their sleeves, it looks like Manny Ramírez is staying.

I think it’s a mistake — it’s different this time. I’d have made just about any deal I could for Manny. Unless everyone suddenly gets healthy, starts performing up to scratch or both, the Sox aren’t going anywhere this year anyway.

Shipping Manny out of town would have sent a message that — if media reports are accurate — a number of Sox players would have liked to hear.

What to do about Ramírez?

Yes, Dan Shaughnessy is correct when he observes that Manny Ramírez has wanted out of Boston almost from the time he came here. But he fails to note that, on other occasions, Manny’s wanted to stay. Wasn’t Manny agitating for the Red Sox to pick up his option just a few weeks ago?

So now Ramírez says he wouldn’t mind being traded. It’s probably not going to happen. But if the Sox have already decided that this is Manny’s last season here, I wonder what would be the smarter move: Hoping he gets hot (actually, he is hot) and carries the Sox into another post-season? Or trading him to shore up the bullpen?

It’s a tough call. I would imagine Ramírez’s trade value is pretty low, given that he’ll be a free agent after the season. I’m not sure the Sox can make it into October either without Manny or with the bullpen they’ve got.

But if I were Theo, if I could line up a trade for the right relievers, I’d pull the trigger and hope the Sox will somehow find enough offense to get by.

Further thoughts on Ramírez

If past blowups are any indication, we should assume that Manny Ramírez’s semi-annual late-July/early-August unpleasantness is now over, and that he’ll return to being a productive hitter the rest of the way.

So what was it all about? There were several factors that struck me as being different from past occasions, including: (1) his still-impressive though declining productivity; (2) the fact that the Sox can walk away from him at the end of the season; and (3) the unusual steps management has taken to make clear that it’s had enough of Manny’s act.

It’s pretty obvious that if Ramírez had taken himself out of the lineup yesterday, he would have been suspended. And if that had happened, I doubt he’d have been back at all.

As great a hitter as Manny is, he’s 36 years old, and he’s gone from consistent to streaky the past couple of years. If he’s on his way to being a .280-25-100 guy, well, that’s still good. But you can replace someone like that for a lot less hassle and a lot less money.

That said, I hope he goes on a tear for the rest of the season.

Is it over for Manny and the Sox?

Not to be overly dramatic, but it’s possible that Manny Ramírez’s career with the Red Sox will end a few hours from now. The Providence Journal’s Sean McAdam reports that if Ramírez refuses to play in today’s game against the Yankees, “disciplinary action — which could include a suspension — will be taken.”

McAdam’s bombshell is unsourced, but it looks to me like he wouldn’t have made such a strong declaration unless it came directly from Terry Francona. Further evidence that Tito’s had enough comes in Dan Shaughnessy’s column in the Boston Globe. “Manny shut it down in 2006 and he’s toying with the Red Sox again,” Shaughnessy writes. “In the middle of a pennant race. It is despicable. And the front office and his teammates are burning. Off the record, of course.”

I’m not going to endorse Shaughnessy’s contention that Ramírez quit on the team in 2006; it seemed at the time that there was a better-than-even chance he had a legitimate injury. I quote Shaughnessy only to point out that he claims both management and players have had enough of Manny’s act, even if they’re not willing to be quoted. (Is Francona afraid he’ll be overruled if he tries to suspend Ramírez?)

At the Boston Herald, blogger Rob Bradford lends support to McAdam’s story, saying there are “strong indications” Manny will be disciplined, and possibly suspended, if he won’t play today. And columnist Steve Buckley says Ramírez ought to be escorted from the premises right now.

A few observations.

1. I was listening to “The Big Show” on WEEI (AM 850) yesterday when McAdam came on to report that Ramírez had just taken himself out of the lineup. Seconds earlier, the consensus had been that the Red Sox should stick with Manny, and possibly renew his option for next year, because for the first time they control his destiny — no performance, no money. Post-McAdam? Flabbergasted incoherence. I can’t say I blame them.

2. Whether Ramírez’s injury is legitimate or not (an MRI reportedly showed nothing, but who knows?), he has conducted himself in an unprofessional manner. You can’t blame the Sox for believing that Manny is faking it and pouting over the fallout from his pushing incident with traveling secretary Jack McCormick and the recent public roasting he received from principal owner John Henry.

3. Ramírez has been acting strangely for years, but this year is especially odd. On the one hand, he’s been much more open. On the other, the incidents with McCormick and Kevin Youkilis are out of character. One possible explanation: He’s desperately hoping to get his option picked up, and he senses that age is catching up with him and his skills are deteriorating. Even after a winter when he reportedly worked harder than ever to get ready for the season.

4. The 2008 Red Sox are a good team, but, with all the injuries and bullpen woes, they don’t look like they’re built to go all the way. If Manny’s teammates are as frustrated with him as we’ve been led to believe, it might have a salutary effect to dump him right now. If Brandon Moss comes through, it might be the spark they need to make it into the post-season. But even if they’re destined to finish second or third, management will have made a statement that could pay off down the line.

The Red Sox won two World Series in part because of Francona’s ability to keep Ramírez happy and productive most of the time. It might be his single most important accomplishment as manager. Now it looks like it’s over.

Photo (cc) by Jeff Wheeler and republished here under a Creative Commons license. Some rights reserved.

Is that all there is?

I’ll reserve judgment over the latest contretemps regarding Manny Ramírez. But I do want to flag an unsettling quote from Bob Lobel in Dan Shaughnessy’s column today.

It was Lobel, formerly of WBZ-TV (Channel 4), who took to WEEI Radio (AM 850) earlier in the week to report that Ramírez had (a) been fined six figures for shoving traveling secretary Jack McCormick and (b) infuriated management by taking three straight called strikes from Mariano Rivera to protest his punishment. Now Red Sox officials are denying it — especially (b).

Here’s Lobel talking to Shaughnessy:

I don’t think this is false information. It’s not something I’d make up. It didn’t come to me in a dream. I know it’s not in their best interests to talk about this, but I’m pretty confident with what I said.

Whoa. Lobel doesn’t think this is false information? Now, there’s a lofty standard. Given that Gordon Edes has reported the fine was about 10 percent of what Lobel claims, I think Lobel owes us more, although he obviously can’t out any anonymous sources he may have.

As for Manny looking at three straight pitches, I watched that game, and yes, it was disconcerting. But Ramírez had preceded that with some big-time loosening-up in the on-deck circle. If he were trying to send a message to management, you’d think he’d just kneel there, immobile.

I forget who the television analyst was, but his explanation that Manny was looking for a pitch in a specific location made sense to me. When Rivera is on, he’s not exactly easy to hit.

Sorry for the relative dearth of links. I’m having Internet problems today.