Running the numbers on the trade (II)

Revising and extending last night’s thoughts:

  • The Boston Globe says that Jason Bay’s salary this year is $5.75 million; it doesn’t go to $7.5 million until next year. So the hit to the Red Sox isn’t as bad as I’d first thought.
  • I forget to mention yesterday that the Sox will lose the two high draft picks they would have received if they’d let Manny become a free agent. That’s significant, although they wouldn’t be getting Bay.

Anyone would trade two high draft picks for Bay; that’s a steal. So the wild cards remain Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss. If either of them — especially Hansen — proves to be a star, Sox fans will be gnashing their teeth. But I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Moss may become a valuable fourth-outfielder type, but Hansen seems to be one of those guys for whom it just isn’t going to work out.

Running the numbers on the trade

I’ve been listening to WEEI Radio (AM 850) on and off for the last hour, and it seems that one early theme has emerged: it was time for Manny Ramírez to go, but the Red Sox gave up too much.

But did they? I don’t think so. Clearly they weren’t going to get equal value, because the whole world knew that the Sox were trying to dump Ramírez. Even so, they did pretty well — financially, too, despite their agreeing to pay Manny’s salary for the rest of the season.

Let’s start with the money. The Dodgers get Ramírez for free for the final two months of the year, as the Red Sox have agreed to pay the $7 million he’s still owed. Jason Bay makes $7.5 million a year [not quite; see update] and the Sox will have to pay him for the rest of the season, or about $2.5 million. So, in essence, they’re paying $9.5 million to have a left fielder for August and September (and, let’s hope, October). That’s a lot of money.

But turn that around. Bay is under contract for next year — again, at $7.5 million. Up until a few weeks ago, it seemed possible that the Sox would pick up Manny’s option for next year, which would have cost $20 million. Manny turns 37 next May. Bay will be 30. Given that differential, there’s a good chance that Bay will put up numbers as good as Ramírez next year, and at one-third the cost. And the Sox may be able to sign Bay to a long-term contract at far less than they would have paid to keep Manny around.

So the Sox will take a hit for two months this year, but will benefit hugely next year and perhaps beyond.

As for the prospects, well, Craig Hansen has been a monumental bust, and that’s putting it mildly. If he’s ever going to succeed, it’s not going to be here. He needs a fresh start somewhere else. Pittsburgh will be a nice, quiet place for him to develop. It’s only a slight exaggeration to say the Sox were lucky to find a way to get rid of him.

Brandon Moss? He turns 25 in September. Bay was the National League’s Rookie of the Year when he was Moss’ age. Moss might turn into a useful player, but he was never going to be more than a fourth outfielder in Boston. To get a player as good as Bay, you’ve got to give up something other than an aging superstar who’ll walk at the end of the season (and who does the Pirates no good anyway) and a pitcher who is, at best, a reclamation project.

You never know how these things will work out. On paper, though, I’d say this is a good deal with the potential to be better than good.

Manny’s gone after all

And a very good trade it is, given that the Red Sox were not in a position to get equal value:

  • Ramírez is out of the AL, so if he leads someone to a pennant, it won’t be to the detriment of the Sox. (Should be something if the Sox meet the Dodgers in the World Series, though.)
  • Jason Bay’s no Manny, but there have been times the last two years when Manny’s been no Manny, either. The big thing is that Ramírez’s bat has been more or less replaced.
  • It’s possible that we’ll regret this some day, but I’ve gotten tired of waiting for Craig Hansen to develop into something other than a complete stiff. Best of luck, Craig.
  • Too bad about Brandon Moss, but he wasn’t going to play here.

The Dodgers get Ramírez for free, which stinks, but it looks like John Henry has decided paying Manny’s salary the rest of the year is a bargain if it gets him out of town.

And, yes, it’s too bad it had to end this way. It seems like it was only a few weeks ago that everyone was raving about the new, outgoing, talkative Ramírez. That all came apart in a hurry, didn’t it?

Is Ramírez staying?

No links — things are changing too quickly. It’s a few minutes after the trading deadline. Unless the Red Sox have something up their sleeves, it looks like Manny Ramírez is staying.

I think it’s a mistake — it’s different this time. I’d have made just about any deal I could for Manny. Unless everyone suddenly gets healthy, starts performing up to scratch or both, the Sox aren’t going anywhere this year anyway.

Shipping Manny out of town would have sent a message that — if media reports are accurate — a number of Sox players would have liked to hear.

What to do about Ramírez?

Yes, Dan Shaughnessy is correct when he observes that Manny Ramírez has wanted out of Boston almost from the time he came here. But he fails to note that, on other occasions, Manny’s wanted to stay. Wasn’t Manny agitating for the Red Sox to pick up his option just a few weeks ago?

So now Ramírez says he wouldn’t mind being traded. It’s probably not going to happen. But if the Sox have already decided that this is Manny’s last season here, I wonder what would be the smarter move: Hoping he gets hot (actually, he is hot) and carries the Sox into another post-season? Or trading him to shore up the bullpen?

It’s a tough call. I would imagine Ramírez’s trade value is pretty low, given that he’ll be a free agent after the season. I’m not sure the Sox can make it into October either without Manny or with the bullpen they’ve got.

But if I were Theo, if I could line up a trade for the right relievers, I’d pull the trigger and hope the Sox will somehow find enough offense to get by.

Further thoughts on Ramírez

If past blowups are any indication, we should assume that Manny Ramírez’s semi-annual late-July/early-August unpleasantness is now over, and that he’ll return to being a productive hitter the rest of the way.

So what was it all about? There were several factors that struck me as being different from past occasions, including: (1) his still-impressive though declining productivity; (2) the fact that the Sox can walk away from him at the end of the season; and (3) the unusual steps management has taken to make clear that it’s had enough of Manny’s act.

It’s pretty obvious that if Ramírez had taken himself out of the lineup yesterday, he would have been suspended. And if that had happened, I doubt he’d have been back at all.

As great a hitter as Manny is, he’s 36 years old, and he’s gone from consistent to streaky the past couple of years. If he’s on his way to being a .280-25-100 guy, well, that’s still good. But you can replace someone like that for a lot less hassle and a lot less money.

That said, I hope he goes on a tear for the rest of the season.