By Dan Kennedy • The press, politics, technology, culture and other passions

OK. Jeb Bush is not going to be the Republican nominee.

A little over a month ago I predicted that Jeb Bush would win the Republican nomination. I wasn’t joking, but I knew my prediction had little chance of coming true. I figured that (1) it should come true, given Bush’s status as the most plausible adult in the Republican field and (2) if he somehow pulled it off, I’d look like a genius.

Well, so much for that. Looking forward, it requires no predictive powers to observe that the nominee will be Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, or Marco Rubio—in other words, a hate-mongering fascist or a hard-right Tea Party favorite. (Frank Bruni usefully reminds us that Rubio’s views are no more mainstream than those of his Canadian colleague).

Washington Post conservative blogger Jennifer Rubin lost it during Trump’s victory speech:

Later she recovered and started tweeting optimistically about Rubio. Well, we’ll see, won’t we?

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  1. I wonder what happened to Republican moderates– they used to exist (Charlie Baker seems to be the last of a dying breed), and I used to be able to vote for some of them. How things have changed. Today, to be a Republican means to hold positions which, to me, seem harsh and often bigoted; yet these views are wildly cheered at Republican campaign rallies. I do not agree with everything President Obama has done, but the disrespectful and dishonest way these candidates talk about him is shameful. I fear for our nation if we elect someone who promotes such beliefs as (non-white) immigrants are criminals, all Muslims are terrorists, Christianity deserves special protection, gay people should go back into the closet, there should be no restriction on gun ownership (and lots of restrictions on women’s reproductive choices or the right to join a union), and tax breaks for the wealthy are a good thing. A party that supports a Donald Trump or a Ted Cruz frightens me, and no, Marco Rubio and John Kasich are not moderates either– they are just not bomb-throwers the way Trump and Cruz are. These are difficult times, but electing a bigoted demagogue or a religious zealot doesn’t seem like a solution to America’s problems. And going back into the past for another Bush certainly wouldn’t solve them either. So what’s next for the Republican party, Dan? Even the so-called “establishment Republicans” don’t seem to know what to do at this point.

  2. I’m afraid your predictions regarding Clay Buchholz will be spot on, though. 🙁

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