More on the Bradley effect

Only this time I’m talking about Bill, not Tom. Robert David Sullivan, one of my editors at CommonWealth Magazine, has analyzed the results of the Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama contest in New Hampshire and finds an eerie resemblance to the 2000 Democratic primary between Al Gore and Bill Bradley.

Apparently the archetype is more important than the person. I can’t see much resemblance between Hillary Clinton and Al Gore, but each appealed to New Hampshire’s more traditional Democrats. And the smug, self-regarding Bradley couldn’t be more different from the electrifying Obama (OK, Obama is a bit self-regarding, too), but both had their base among the affluent, the well-educated and the young.

Robert does things with maps and stats that I can barely comprehend, but he makes a plausible case that the way to win a Democratic primary in New Hampshire is to go after the party regulars. Among other things, unlike young people and independents, they can always be counted on to vote.


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4 thoughts on “More on the Bradley effect”

  1. I can’t see much resemblance between Hillary Clinton and Al Gore, but each appealed to New Hampshire’s more traditional Democrats.There’s another very strong resemblance between Hillary and Gore – much of the press treats them both as objects of ridicule and contempt.

  2. Steve: Well, no doubt about that. But you could say the same about Romney, too.

  3. The major resemblance between Clinton (Hillary) and Gore is that they were both with Clinton (Bill) in the administration prior to Bush II. That alone is enough to justify a vote for some, or a non-vote from others.

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