Democrats have nailed down 54 seats in the Senate, and that number could climb to 55 or 56 depending on how the counting progresses in Alaska and (gasp!) Mississippi.
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But even if Republicans hold on to both, Democrats have achieved something of great importance: They’ve made the Senate Fetterman-proof. That is, their majority is large enough that the Trump-curious Pennsylvania Democrat will be unable to demand concessions in return for his support, as Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema did during Joe Biden’s first two years as president.
There are many, many observations to be made about the gigantic blue wave that came crashing over the Republican Party’s heads Tuesday night and this morning. One that I want to make involves the extraordinary good fortune the Democrats enjoyed in a number of races that they may not have otherwise won even with a deeply unpopular president looming over the election. Here are three:
◘ Maine: In a contest that was thought to be a potential nail-biter, Troy Jackson defeated the incumbent Republican, Susan Collins, by a relatively wide margin of 54% to 46%. Now, imagine for a moment what might have happened if Graham Platner, he of the Nazi tattoo and the credible accusation that he’d committed rape, hadn’t been pushed out last June. Imagine if the rape accusation had come in October. Collins would have coasted home.
◘ Texas: What is going on in the Lone Star State? Not only did James Talarico handily beat the loathsome Ken Paxton in the Senate race, 55% to 43%, but the Democratic candidate for governor, Gina Hinojosa, defeated incumbent Greg Abbott by a similar margin. And it may well be that Donald Trump was the cause. It was he, after all, who pushed out incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn for not being sufficiently MAGA. That not only gave Talarico the opening he needed, but it may have created a headwind that pulled along Hinojosa as well.
◘ Kansas: The biggest issue in the Senate race was incumbent Republican Roger Marshall’s practice of filing lawsuits against his obstetrical patients who were behind on paying their bills; at least 81 of those patients were arrested when they missed court dates. Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton was probably going to win anyway. But with just a few days to go, Marshall defied his own campaign staff and released an ad defending himself, blaming the arrests on an “outside agency.” You know, the collection agency that he himself had brought in. Hamilton, an ordained minister, won by 51% to 46%.
How enduring will this be? Consider that 2028 could well be another blue-wave year given that Trump will continue to poison the political environment for the next two years. The next midterms, in 2030, could cost Democrats their House majority, but Democrats elected to the Senate this week will still have two years left in their terms — and if they’re able to pick up a few more seats in 2028, those senators will not be up for re-election, either.
This wave will be with us for a while simply because of the math.
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